So, given we can't predict the weather (any farmer that's been around for a while will tell you that) surely it's trade the trade, each season, based on the global S&D, i.e. stocks-to-use, capitalising, where possible, on any net positions from non-commercial entities (e.g. hedge funds) that create temporary distortions in the market, e.g. when they get too long/short the market. Happens every year.
I'm actually not sure how it assists our investment case for wheat by looking too far ahead. Wheat is a hand-to-mouth commodity and imo the S&D of the countries that impact Chicago futures (or whatever underlying index your instrument mimics) must be obeyed, since it always drives price.
