One of my shorting stocks, page-17

Bubby

I understand what you are saying - a share is part ownership of a company ......however -
unless you wish to blame to greeks - Egyptians etc for the "creation" of modern markets .....then you need to accept reality ....

trading = buying (or selling) a share on the hope it will go up (down) .....

short sale = 1 way bet on price movement ........

CFD = a contract hat allows people to "bet" on either +ve or -ve ....

its the same thing mate !

in the case of MCR - the company publically told the market (2-3 months ago) - that should the nickel price remain depressed ....it would shut-in its mines .......they probably should have shut-in Marineers a couple of months ago !

the broking houses - use PV10 to asses value .....and this is assumption dependant (production / opex / commodity price etc etc).....

as an investor - I ask myself:
1. what can management do to "add value" (ie mine the stuff effiecently, discovery new resources etc)
2. do they act rationally (shuting in a mine - when its c/flow neutral is a +ve imho)
3. will the company go broke (v unlikely imho)
4.
do they have shareholder interests at heart (they have bought back 27% of the shares outstanding)...
5. what is the outlook for the commodity (imho - outstanding over the next 2 years !)
6. what is the "timeline" (ie holding period, and expected return)


one can then look at the price - and ask the "value" question ......if I pay "xx" for this stock - what do I think I will make over my holding period ????

the "rout" in metals markets is due to "financialisation" of the commodities .....and "access to cash" as such - it would not surprise me to see ni prices go lower (in the short term) ......

this means:
1. compamies will find access to cash extremely limited !
2. new investments will be curtailed (ie supply)
3. some will go broke (already happeneing)
4. stocks will slowly get consumed .....
5. those that survive will make $$ on the other side


this is the "normal" cycle ......

you may wish to check
PT Vale
Anaram (indo ferro-Ni producer)
candaian Ni producers .....
raventhorpe

its already happeneing !

rgds
V_H