MML 2.41% 85.0¢ medusa mining limited

Ann: Quarterly Report June 2015, page-10

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  1. 812 Posts.
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    I didn't mean to imply that MML was bad value, I think its fundamentals are solid and its medium term plan is realistic and in the longer run will prove to be a good investment.

    However, I'm not sure the market will agree (yet).

    At the moment MML is selling "potential" some of that potential is realistic and should be priced in by the market, but when your company is in an industry that has been decimated and your stock is down over 90% over the last couple of years the market isn't going to pay anything for "potential", it's now only paying for "results".

    Unfortunately for MML with the PoG in AUD trending higher, mainly due to the AUD falls, over the last 9 months has meant that other ASX listed gold miners have been able to realise both falling costs and rising revenues and are now seeing the fruits of their labour and trading on FCF/EV multiples that are comparable to what MML's will be once it finishes the bulk of their capex phase.

    So Mr Market has to choose between gold miners that have the results today or MML that is promising to get the results tomorrow...

    I don't think MML will outperform its peers in that environment (unless the PoG rapidly rises and the AUD appreciates).

    However with many Australian based gold mining companies about to report great results for FY15 over the next month (and I suspect many will beat analyst expectations) there is some scope for the market to revalue its assessment of the gold mining industry (which have been trashed over the last couple of years).

    So even though MML is yet to get the runs on the boards, it may benefit from a rising tide that will lift all boats in the Australian listed gold mining sector, even if its best years are still well into the future.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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