I'm on the phone to a global wheat desk every week, so at a bit of an advantage (wish I had that sort of advantage in the stock market!).
It's also really important to monitor the CoT report each week to see how long/short the big non-commercials are that push the market around and create the overshoot on the chart.
If we were to freeze global s&d right now and assume average yields for the Aussie crop and a relatively unchanged AUD, we would not see any rise in the price of wheat and in fact it would possibly need to discount further, in line with export parity.
As I see it, El Nino and currency are the two outliers that have the potential to change the equation up but like I've said, anyone calling for significantly higher prices is either a gambler (the bet being what Mother Nature brings us) or a master currency strategist and can call large, short term, movements with accuracy.
