My clients would love to hear you say that. I'd actually bet on us being closer to $250-300 around harvest if we have an average yielding season. If it's a severe El Nino year then who knows but i think $500/t is a massive stretch. I think we saw $420/t in 2008 and that was with a horrible year in the nth hem and Russia imposing an embargo on their massive wheat exports. The AUD was about 20c higher then but that's only worth $3-4/t.
Looks more like a technical based rally to me, likely some funds getting together and pushing it through resistance to get a covering rally. Will be interesting to see the Committment of Traders report next week for non-commercial entities.
