Geological mapping of priority areas has been completed and a report is expected shortly. Additional mapping and geophysical studies are expected to get underway over priority areas in the coming months.
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[LEFT][B]HIKKADUWA PROJECT [/B]
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[CENTER]HIKKADUWA PROJECT
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[LEFT][B]Hikkaduwa[/B] consists of 10 square kilometres of exploration grids that cover a number of historical workings and extensive residual surface graphite. The project area is located to the northwest of the seaside city of Galle with a population of approximately 99,500.
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[LEFT]Many access roads within the licence area are littered with residual graphite. There are many sites that contain the remnants of concrete winch plinths that were utilised to hoist graphite ore from mine shafts.
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[LEFT]Geological mapping of priority areas has been completed and a report is expected shortly. Additional mapping and geophysical studies are expected to get underway over priority areas in the coming months.
[B]Catalysts [/B]
- 344 square kilometres of project areas under application and are expected to be granted as Exclusive Exploration licences in 2014.
- Fast track exploration effort along the Pandeniya and Wallagala strike line is expected to identify multiple drilling targets in the first calendar quarter of 2014.
- Access to underground workings at Wallagala expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2014.
- Mapping of vein style graphite ore systems within Wallagala underground workings has potential to identify economic ore within the first and second calendar quarters of 2014. This will trigger application for mining rights and scoping study to evaluate narrow vein mining utilising local labour, and commencing in the first or second calendar quarter of 2015.
- Electromagnetic Survey will be completed in March of 2014 over priority targets at Wallagala and Pandeniya and will lead to the commencement of drilling in Aril of 2014.
- Drilling results at Wallagala and Pandeniya announced throughout the second and third calendar quarters of 2014.
- Results of early stage geological mapping over priority targets at Palinda Numara and Hikkaduwa announced in first calendar quarter of 2014.
- Additional mapping and geophysical studies commenced over priority targets at Palinda Numara and Hikkaduwa that continue throughout the first and second calendar quarters of 2014.
- Drilling targets identified for further evaluation.
- Subject to a successful scoping study application for conversion to a mining lease at Wallagala in early 2015.
[B]Sri Lanka – economic and political stability now driving growth[/B]
In 2009 Sri Lanka emerged from a 26 year long civil war to become one of the world’s fastest growing economies as reconstruction efforts helped the country to recover from a long period of global economic isolation. The Asian Development Bank notes that GDP growth in 2013 was 6.8% and estimates for 2014 are at 7.2%. Unemployment is currently at 4.7%, and per capita GDP is at US$7,900.
Excellent infrastructure and an experienced vein graphite labour market support the Company’s intention of near future production potential.
The economy is dominated by tourism, agricultural exports, apparel manufacture, and textile production.
Sri Lanka is a republic that has open and free elections that operates under a constitution, and a mixture of a presidential and parliamentary system. The Index of Economic Freedom ranks the nation as 81th freest out of 185 nations and 13th out of 41 countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Mining is governed by Mines and Minerals Act, and licences are granted for exploration and then for industrial mining. Corporate taxes are currently at 28%, with mineral production also subject to payment of royalties.
[B]Underwritten entitlement issue[/B]
The company recently decided to proceed with an underwritten entitlement issue.
Under the terms of the issue shareholders will be able to subscribe for 4 new shares for every 5 shares currently held at an issue price of $0.025.
The issue will be fully underwritten by CPS Capital Group Pty Ltd and will raise approximately $1.485 million before costs.
[B]Graphite market[/B]
Natural graphite is found in three commercial varieties that include crystalline flake, microcrystalline or amorphous, and crystalline vein or lump. Global production in 2011 consisted of 565,000 tonnes of flake graphite, 450,000 tonnes of amorphous graphite and 4,000 tonnes of vein graphite.
China is the major producer of graphite with a 73% market share, and Sri Lanka is at the other end of the scale with a 0.4% market share.
Graphite is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity, has a high melting point of 3,650°C and is typically resistant to chemical degradation, thermal shock and shrinkage. It has been declared a strategic material by both the USA and European Union due to its scarcity and unique properties that is driving demand within the high technology and green energy sectors.
Applications include industrial dry lubricant, medical implants, heat shield for re-entry vehicles from space, solid rocket engines, high temperature reactors, brake shoes, electric motor brushes, fire seals, lithium ion batteries, fuel cells, nuclear power plants and portable electronic devices as a heat sink.
Global production of graphite is currently at 1.1 million tonnes per annum with 52% of consumption absorbed by the steel industry. This is utilised as a liner for ladles, crucibles, component in brick lined furnaces, and as an agent to increase the strength in steel, and assist with the melting of scrap steel.
A typical electric vehicle consumes 25 to 50 kilograms of graphite in its battery pack. Battery production for electronic appliances and electric vehicles represents the biggest growth market for high quality graphite with lithium ion batteries consuming ten times as much graphite as lithium.
Annual growth in the lithium ion battery market is forecast at 30% to 40% and 20% in the electric vehicle market.
Graphite is a major component of carbon fibre that is a lightweight reinforced plastic material. Around 50% of current production is absorbed by aerospace applications and the balance goes into vehicles, tools and sporting goods.
China’s recent halt of graphite production around Pingdu, Shandong will force buyers to seek new and long-time supply sources of graphite, and provides new developers such as MRL opportunities to secure long term supply contracts once a resource base is established.
Industrial Minerals forecasts that global demand for graphite will grow by an additional 1 million tonnes per annum by 2020. This will require 25 new mines that produce 40,000 tonnes of graphite per annum.
Graphite pricing currently falls into a range of US$1,400 to US$1,500 per tonne for plus 80 mesh 94-97% carbon, and is conservatively forecast to reach US$ 1,600 to US$1,800 per tonne in 2016. A more aggressive forecast puts the price at US$3,600 per tonne at the end of 2016.
Vein graphite can range in purity from 94% to 99% carbon and may attract a higher price due to higher thermal and electrical conductivity.
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Analysis: Peer group analysis and valuation [/B]
Australian graphite explorers operating in Sri Lanka include Bora Bora (ASX: BBR) which is capitalised at $6 million. Bora Bora holds a 75% interest in its Sri Lanka permits and has recently conducted an aerial VTem survey of Sri Lankan assets and interpretation of results.
The other is [URL='[url]http://www.*.com.au/companies/overview/2898/Viculus+Limited'][/url]Viculus Limited[/URL] ([URL='[url]http://www.*.com/companies/overview/2898/viculus-limited-2898.html'][/url]ASX:VCL[/URL]) which reached an agreement to acquire five exploration licences in Sri Lanka’s Western Province that are prospective for graphite mineralisation. The company has signed a Heads of Agreement to acquire Euro Petroleum, which holds the contractual rights to acquire 70% of Lanka Graphite.
MRL is currently capitalised at $2.2 million, holds a 100% interest in its Sri Lankan assets, and has undertaken local EM surveying and has already commenced on site project development with field teams. At this stage of operations both companies should carry similar valuations. This is equivalent to $0.08 per share at a market capitalisation of $6 million.
On a range of metrics MRL is compelling:
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A key point to note is that MRL’s Sri Lankan operation is not a green field exploration. All projects areas have extensive historical workings and remnant graphite. This is resource delineation prior to conversion to a mining licence. MRL has already concluded nearly all the land access agreements required for exploration and also locked in the land access for potential mining in the Priority 1 area.
Safety training and the implementation of a management safety system are well advanced. All safety and operations are being completed to the standard which would be expected in Australia.
Basically, MRL is on the ground and operating in Sri Lanka, which neither of the above companies are at this point in time.
[B]Risk v Reward[/B]
- MRL’s projects have low capex and opex requirements.
- Production of 5,000tpa of premium quality vein graphite should generate revenues of approximately of US$10m pa. Capex to achieve this would be
- Most other potential producers have capex requirements of $34m and up to $133m. This level is to produce 20,000-50,000 tpa of graphite from grades ranging between 7% to 12% Carbon as graphite.
Another valid peer comparison is with [URL='[url]http://www.*.com.au/companies/overview/2670/Canada+Carbon'][/url]Canada Carbon[/URL] (TSXV: CCB) which we believe to be the only project developer of a graphitic vein carbon resource. The resource is known as the Miller Graphite Project and is located in Quebec, Canada. Miller is operated as a hydrothermal lump vein graphite mine that shipped 25 railcars of graphite in 1900.
Carbon Canada has located the historic open pit, completed surface sampling, electromagnetic surveying, and identified a number of anomalies. Several recent drill holes have been completed that confirm the near surface presence of economic grades of mineralisation.
The Company is the 100% owner of Miller and is currently capitalised at C$13.6 million. This is indicative of the valuation that applies to an early stage developer of a [B]vein type graphite deposit. [/B]
This provides another peer comparison valuation guidepost for MRL. MRL will reach the same developmental point within the next two quarters and should reflect a similar or higher valuation. That is equivalent to $0.16 per share (on an undiluted basis). Our valuation and target price reflect a discount to this price.
Proactive Investors calculates that MRL should be priced at $0.09 to $0.10 to maintain parity with its two ASX listed peers operating within Sri Lanka and based on its advanced project capacity to move to early production than its peers which could see it begin production in 2015 – based on low CAPEX.
The significant catalysts ahead for MRL provide value accretive milestones to step up the value of the Company.
Our share price target would increase on release of positive exploration and development data over the next two quarters.
MRL has developed a conceptual mine plan for the Warakapola Project that envisions an output of 5,000 tonnes per annum of premium grade graphite to garner annualised revenues of US$10 million. Ongoing exploration and development over the next two quarters should confirm or deny this modest production goal.
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Kind Regards[/LEFT][/LEFT][/LEFT][/LEFT][/LEFT][/LEFT][/CENTER][/LEFT][/CENTER][/LEFT][/LEFT]