Hi Pisces. I used to trade Macquarie a bit but hadn't looked at the chart for a while. Wow, what a run. It's on my broader watchlist but I hadn't been paying attention. I stopped tracking it at that consolidation phase around $60 as it wasn't clear to me which way it was going to break.
It's actually quite an interesting chart now for a potential short over the next couple of months. I used to like Macquarie because it follows Elliott Wave patterns really well and a lot of the technical tools I use work well on it. I know you don't follow Elliott Wave, but I use it as a big picture road map on the monthly chart.
Its actually has just hit the projection for completion of a Wave B (red letters) from the low in 2009 to present. If confirmed that's really negative, as it would see it going into a longer term downturn into Wave C (black dotted line, red letters). Looking at some other information this is actually quite credible.
It may just blow through this point and prove the Wave B completion theory incorrect. The alternative view is it's in a Wave 1,2,3,4,5 shown in Pink which is a similar pattern to the first 5 waves up (shown with orange letters).
I don't trade potential tops until its turned and proven, It's quite a powerful up move, so of course could keep going.
Also note that the steepness of the rise has occurred before from March to October 2009, but then it did go into a long decline after that. History often repeats on charts. Maybe it's repeating on a larger scale that the steep run up then 90% decline from March 2009 to Sept 2011?. Interesting. One to watch.
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