I agree not terrible. But I don't believe above average. Must admit, I had the wrong start date for Ms watkins role at GNC which is why I said zero percent. I'm more pointing out the probable outcome and my belief of the reason senior people are quitting is because they are concerned about the long term outlook of CCA.
I firmly disagree with your argument regarding paying out dividends. Plenty of companies retain earnings for growth because it is better for investors in many cases (i.e. Berkshire). There are advantages to retaining earnings to invest if the investments are good.
I'm gonna exaggerate my numbers to explain my point and simplify the math. The point remains valid either way.
Look at Indonesia. If she thought the $500 million investment was going to make $2 for every dollar invested within 2 years she would know that the $500mil investment would become $1billion. By retaining earnings for 1 year she could triple the dividend in two years. If the dividend was $1.50 a share then people would pay a lot more for the shares. Maybe $20 a share. Maybe $30 a share. Given she went to TCCC head office and pitched selling Indonesia she obviously thinks it is a basket case. (this is what I believe is causing friction between her and current employees).
If she thought Indonesia was terrible (i.e. every dollar invested would be worth only $1 after 2 years) she wouldn't bother making the investment. It wouldn't make sense to invest.
What about TCCC? They could act as above. Note TCCC are paid more than A. Watkins and it is a reasonable assumption to say they are paid more because they are smarter so if they think as above then investors are probably getting a raw deal. Whats more, they are less likely to have interest in owning a larger percentage of the business because they don't like owning bottling franchises. It is outside their core business so the deal has to be doubly attractive to normal before they bite. . It is quite clear TCCC don't like owning bottling franchises. Either the deal was good or they wanted to maintain their share of CCAI and believed A.Watkins is planning to sell it.
As a side note, my numbers on Indonesia are as follows. They currently make $3.50 in revenue per person per year in Indonesia. GDP per capita is $3.5k/yr. If growth continues at about the same rate for about 10 more years then GDP per capita will be $10k/yr per person. In today's money, coke consumption will be about $10/Indonesian (estimated based on consumption of similar GDP countries). Roughly speaking it'd be a return on investment of about 30% per year at the price TCCC is paying.
Back to it. Why only sell 30%? Why commit to selling to TCCC? TCCC didn't approach A.Watkins, she traveled over there and suggested the idea. I suspect she thinks Indonesia is a basket case. I also suspect existing management think the exact opposite given they've thrown money at Indonesia for years now. Only my opinion. form your own.
Given solid managers from CCA are leaving, I am a fair bit worried they are all leaving as others have mentioned above.
Don't be surprised if all of Indonesia goes on sale.
CCL Price at posting:
$9.70 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
