should we have seen it coming?, page-16

Thanks Mike,
As you know, I called it a buy at 1.04-1.15 when many others said to sell. Some of us did well
I did not expect this 'merger' event to occur however. I also do not believe the shorters were mainly to blame for the SP fall. The shorters were about .3-.5 of 1%, so it was clear to me that everyday stock was being sold off in the general market sentiment of the period of early Dec.
We saw a short and sharp rise in the SP, which was correctly moving back towards a reflection of the  fundamentals.
I don't know if the 'merger' will take place, however, the SP in my view has shot well over what the merger has offered right now. I sold out at 1.52, where the easy money was to be made, as beyond that there is some significant ST risk in my view by entering now. The SP at 1.70 is perhaps reflecting the benefit of the merger.
If the merger takes place, i'd expect a slow and steady rise towards 2-2.50. However, if it doesn't emerge, then I expect a very sudden SP fall (a risk i'm not willing to take), and this is the time, in my view, to re-enter.