Saudi Goes to War, page-18

Following on from the original post in this thread, I have bought back into shale oilers over the last few days. Not sure if it will be as a long term buy or a trade. My logic

- Oil has come down to the Saudi dictated price of $60 (a bit less for WTI) and the freefall has stopped. Its now undulating and could either go up / go down / remain flat in the short term but I dont think there is the momentum for further big moves down.
- All recent forecasts I have seen show this to be the low point. Some forecasts show only slight rises for 2015 while others show it rising back to the 80's
- The Saudi budget for 2015 has an average oil price of $60. Traditionally they purposely underestimate oil prices in their budgeting so this again points to the bottom
- The price drop seems out of proportion to the fundamentals, and the panic (emotion) seems to have cleared
- Predictions were for excess oil production to peak in mid 2015. Producers have acted swiftly to scale back development - I believe this will pass as predicted

So it seems to be the next few months give buyers the chance to buy at approximately the bottom. A few lucky buyers who risked catching a falling knife snagged some absolute bargain prices but for everyone else I think the buying is still good - and less risky with the freefall having stopped.

Personally I bought up SEA (47c) and AOK (11.5c). I was perviously exclusivey in AOK but feel SEA shows better value / will bounce harder after a bigger fall.