Forgotten Oil Stock, page-5

My thoughts on the back of an envelope
1st 1/4 2015 average price, with 43% hedge at $91 and balance at say $55 = $70.3 per barrel
2nd 1/4 2015 average price, with 84% hedge at $94 and balance at $55= $87.76 per barrel
3rd 1/4 2015 average price, with 60% hedge at $95 and balance at $55 = $79.00 per barrel
4th 1/4 2015 average price, with 67% hedge at $94 and balance at $55= $81.12 per barrel
Average over 2015 - $79
assuming tot cost of approx. $45 per barrel
conservatively assuming production tot of 492750 barrels over 2015 (1200 ,1300,1400,1500 av per day per 1/4)...current production is over 1400 boe
Approx net profit of 17 million... current Mc 64mill
Just a couple of thoughts re Oil and why there may be limited downside with the Chinese putting a floor under oil to boost country's reserves, Nigeria making no money and elections due in Feb will, if history repeats itself ,fall into disarray ,and similarly Venezuela's supply is being negatively affected. Heaps of conspiracy theories over why but basically Opec wants to maintain market share and it seemingly doesn't care who gets hurt even if that be its own members who have continually undercut each other anyway.
Anyway you could almost guarantee one or two of the more radical suppliers will create a diversion/war/terrorist attack as they become increasingly desperate with dwindling revenues and Govt budgets in tatters.
Out of interest...
"Fernandez, 33, is part of a growing exodus of skilled oilfield workers from Venezuela, where real wages for engineers have fallen to the equivalent of less than $400 a month, about 9 percent of the global average. The world’s worst inflation, swelling crime rates and a plunging currency are prompting others to move abroad, dragging down oil production at a time when slumping crude prices threaten the country’s export revenue."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...y-exodus-slowing-crude-production-energy.html
Venezuela approx. 2.9million barrels day
Nigeria 2.52 million barrels day.
Saudi Arabia 11.7 million barrels day.