Is this the end?, page-18

Stoops, just briefly, the price/supply shock turned a lot of major OEM's away from RE, the Jap Govt. invested $1.2B in trying to find alternates, that's 3/4x the value of their annual imports.

The major conclusion from that "investment" was they needed to use RE more efficiently, which included being dependant of scarce, expensive HRE where China holds a monopoly and will do for quite some time, particularly finishing & metals.

This has prompted a huge amount of ROW innovation both in efficiencies and reduction/elimination of HRE. Countless examples, many of which I've posted on LYC.

Two of the more obvious are the reduction of phosphors in CFL and the rapid take up of LED, using only 10%/25% of phosphor content depending on who you read. The other of course has been greater efficiency of Dy usage in NdFeB, and particularly in bonded mags, it's elimination. This is ongoing with Siemens planning to launch a 10MW monster wind generator with 0.1% Dy mags, they are about to release D7 with improved magnet topography 0.7% Dy.

HRE will obviously remain important, scarce & expensive elements but OEM's will continue to innovate around them due to cost & supply security issues.

This liberation from tyranny will most likely drive NdPr demand higher than forecast as cost/efficiency enables it to compete better with ferrite that dominates 70% market currently.
With lower prices La demand is currently running at 2008 demand levels, 14ktpa, particularly into FCC for heavier crude & shale oils. As stockpiles run down there is likely to be a price impact, plus NiHM demand has held up much better than expected against Li-Ion, despite all the hype. Pr is the only element back at 2011 av price, $100kg+, due to alternate use in addition to magnet demand.

Volume/growth end of the market is clearly La, Nd & Pr and where price recovery should be seen first, balance of elements obviously will provide valuable credits but don't believe they will be the prime mover for any RE operation.

CUX suite is nicely balanced if that outline proves up. Post a few links above when I get time.

Have a merry Xmas all, & a great 2015.