value of the coal leases, page-5

Market cap is so low as we all know coal is on the nose which means few buyers to soak up the never ending selling from Lind. Had PB and the board taken the initiative to do a placement of say 100m shares at .9 when the stock was 1.5 which should of been an easy sell given PB confidence in RIO proceeding, we would of only increased shares on issue by 20% instead of 100%. It also would not have given an incentive to sell below .9 unlike the Lind formula which continues to allow them to sell at a profit all the way down. With stock down over 95% it's hard to see what PB and PZ have done to earn their $500k in consultancy fees albeit deferred!!!!
Board needs to do some deals, isn't that what we pay them for.
As far as value goes , I reckon it's there but given it is clearly a buyers market in coal, the trick is trying not to give assets away at the bottom of the cycle. Unfortunately the funding vehicle the board has chosen has driven the market cap to such a level that they have blown any chance of bringing in a larger investor as we would all be diluted even further down the toilet, so cash for assets is only option and we are not in the best bargaining position.
Wesfarmers paid $70m for 250m tonnes next door to our old EPC 1827 which is now a MDL. MDL162 has a large part of the resource as open cut potential but then dips towards our ground . Wesfarmers paid around 28c a tonne, so give ours is underground but same quality coal , same seam etc even if you say 8c a tonne gives you a $10m back of envelope valuation. ( 124m tonnes @ 8c). You would think at some stage Wesfarmers will mine next door and eventually access deeper ore in the ground, the economics would be far greater if they could add another 120m tonnes for 1/4 of what they paid per tonne.
RIO will likely exercise their option I think as given they have closed down many sub par mines they like all majors are sweating their existing tier 1 assets. Hail Creek is as good as it gets producing Australia's highest quality coking coal. They want to extend the mine life of this asset so have embarked on land banking of surrounding ground. our deal with them has already seen multiple EPC,s surrounding Hail Creek change ownership to them ,plus we are yet to determine what tonnage we have on EPC 1824 Mt Hillalong which has a per tonne calculation in event that they exercise right to purchase 75%, given this deal was inked when coal prices were a lot higher! I don't think it would be a stretch to value at circa $10m.
South clermont is the sleeper as given the high quality thermal coal produced next door, if that 30m seam extends into our ground then it's game on. For now I will also assume $10m.
So $30m is my calculation although will need movement in coal price to achieve. That's 15c per share.