Downrampers Fail, page-8

Summing it up the SP is a function of probability of different outcomes discounted for risk and uncertainty.

If probability of approval with no further delays is 60% SP is likely to be 60c on approval that expected value is .36 cents (.6*60c) if there is 35% of delays and associated CR the SP is likely be low say 15c that is expected value of .0525 if there is any outright rejection I dont see any share at all so 5%x0 =0.

That leaves expected value of 36c+5.25c = 41c at the moment, currently trading at around 30c which represents an 11c discount for the uncertainty or the market sees the risks or SP levels at a different level.

If anyone has anymore information on the what they see as the probability of the three options or just their own assessment of the 3 outcomes or expected SP on each outcome I would be interested to know.

For example is there often delays at the 210 days level? Is it more like yes or no at this point maybe only two probable outcome approval or rejection? CE gurus like Rev and others would know better than I a mere bean counter.