the risks in this industry in respect of contract delays / margin erosion have come to pass. Heaps of other private operators are doing much worse. At least hofco looks like it will do better than last year - given overall gearing is low to moderate, TTN look like they should get thru this.
What I don't get is how a fund manager can just dump stock at the slightest whiff of a slowdown esp in a small cap - aren't they supposed to be long term ? imagine if a companies bankers did the same thing !
most of the issues appear to be in the camps/ catering / water cartage - gap in drilling contracts ( par for the course in his business ) has happened at the wrong time. debt / ebit is less than 1x new forecast - if was say 2 / 3 times their previous forecast ( i.e. $21m ebitda x 3 ) they would be in a whole world of hurt.
back in the bottom draw - why sell now is a buyers market ?
EBIT will be lower than there stated 10 - 12m, page-37
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