I don't mind non holders posting - be it positive / negative / "concerns". I do it myself and I think that the comments (especially the negative stuff) make holders critically analyse their investments. Its part of the debate on these forums and whatever the motive I think it makes for better discussion.
I did not read the links but the issues raised are legitimate. I've read pretty much all I can on the ML over the last 2 years, AOK being an important stock to me.
In summary my findings / conclusions were:
- ML is a laterally extensive but highly variable play
- Variation occurs region to region with some sweet spots. AOK's location on the east side of the Nehama (sp?) ridge has a high chat component and historically has had the best producing wells. It appears to be a sweet spot. To date AOK wells have achieved excellent IRR compared to industry standards - better than most laterals.
- Variation can occur within a very short distance which requires precise positioning of laterals and appropriate frac technique. Companies have to either be excellent at placing laterals or go for a vertical approach to achieve consistent results - laterals achieving slightly better returns when placed well but having more risk of poor wells also. To date AOK has achieved excellent consistency with vertical wells and mixed results with horizontal wells (minor interest with Range).
- Many companies have had poor returns because costs blew out. Majors have high over heads. Minors tried to hold too much land requiring an excessive infrastructure spend due to all the SWD facilities and pipelines. AOK has gone to lengths to control costs and not extend themselves to far.
- The companies who are bailing are the ones who have achieved poor results because of a combination of: poor location, poor consistency, and excessive costs.
- These issues are not random. They are controllable so you have a situation where some companies are flourishing and some are failing
- AOK IMHO has done an excellent job with managing location , out put, consistency, and costs
- At a corporate level they seem to have a conservative and open management with skin in the game.
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- About TRCH, REI, SD, DVN, EPM and other Mississippi Lime Players and AOK's neighbors
About TRCH, REI, SD, DVN, EPM and other Mississippi Lime Players and AOK's neighbors, page-6
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