There is no chance, if there was, Poli wouldn't accept Baosteel's offer.
Its clear and makes easy sense for Poli to take cash and walk away as a rich man, than take scrip from MIN. Yet the merged company ie. MIN-AQA would still need to find $7.4b in funding somewhere to fund development.
Its clear Barnett has its blessing on Baosteel, as well as AQA's JV partners AMCI and POSCO would want Baosteel on board and bring on certainty and funding to get this project off the drawing board.
Otherwise a merged MIN-AQA could turn out to be another MMX with the disastrous OPR, where Mitsubishi had to beg the Chinese for funding, which the Chinese just snubbed them.
AQA Price at posting:
$3.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held