grieve worth $95million - 50 cents a share, page-11

third try at posting, apologies:


Binbin
you say;
"I personally wouldnt allocate much value if any to the pipeline or Ash Creek as they have been up for sale for quite some time now with clearly no interest at least at the price the Board is willing to accept."

Not disagreeing, but wondering as follows:

Could the pipeline be the key to any deal? Surely this is critical to the whole investment? I think Carmichael put a value of about $6 m for this, (April 2013) which seems reasonable.

Denbury have got Elk over a barrel re. JV progress and timing. Elk's ace is the pipeline. Denbury, will not want to truck oil 26 miles or so to the refinery, and I suspect Denbury and Elk are engaging in a bit of "tit for tat " at present, originating with the Denbury failure to get ownership of the pipeline previously.

Putting a value on things is difficult, as someone here pointed out a while back , the Elk value to Denbury should be at least the value of Elk's "notional' debt, which is roughly the value of the JV to Elk.

So I would go with 50% of Carmichael's last valuation ie about 25 cents. I would settle for that, but I have only a modest holding, and I am not especially long term, (at least recently), though I was a big holder several years back ( as some may recall).