re: Ann: Kin Mining to Acquire Leonora Gold P... Hi SS
i have always respected you and your research, so i trust the following post will not be seen as some attempt to down ramp. the flowing are my views based on my understanding and views as a NAV holder. please note i escaped NAV with only a small loss and thus do not have a vendetta against NAV or its assets
Soul, I think when looking at Leonora you need to ignore 2009 info because NAV did more feasibility work post this. In your first to slides you will note the footnote that has cutoff worked out an assumed price of 2000 so we can virtually disregard the resource figures in a 1300 gold price environment. The cut-off grade is ..7 grams which is very very low
Furthermore - the later estimates (2012 ) show cash costs at over 800 which is very high and with input costs increasing since then, would probably be higher, Every gold quarterly i have read would have cash costs at about 250-400 lower than AISC so that creates a very slim margin . so we are taking about a project with AISC at about 1100-1200 which is high risk
i am not sure why KIN liked leonora so much because it seems to be it is a medium to high cost project, even with some improvements in costs i can't imagine cash costs falling much below 700 which would mean AISC around 1000. This leaves little room for error
Leonora would be the kind of project that would success in a 1600 gold price environment but i must say i am not convinced its a project for todays gold price Furthermore Nav proved its projected costs /desktop studies vs reality where mies apart so this would also cause me worry .
it is hard to say whether Kin can make leonora something a lot more valuable and it is possible, but as a NAV holder i remember too much, including disappointing exploration results at Hobby, pre feasibility that wanst good enough to progress the project, and a difficulty to sell tho asset even when NAV desperately was seeking to when they needed cash , and all this while gold price was 1500 plus
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