john risk - wheat price direction?, page-58

The demand is already here. One billion people are undernourished. They don't eat bread because they can't afford it. Eat yams or maize instead. Unlikely they will soon be able to afford wheat products but hungry=desperate=protest=serious unrest. Even if 3rd world govts were given enough cash to buy wheat to put bread on everyone's table i suspect there is not enough to go around. Hard to know how events will play out but remain bullish re wheat.
Meanwhile RSA which has had successive large maize harvests and is 6 weeks from harvesting another substantial crop, is experiencing a strong spike in maize price such that spot price exceeds mid-May fwd price by over a third. It's because too much grain was exported and country suddenly finds itself short of grain. Farmers with grain in their silos getting far more than just a few weeks ago.