China GDP growth likely to be 7.3% Wednesday, April 02, 2014 by Proactive Investors
In about two weeks time China will release the first quarter economic growth data for 2014, which is likely to come in around the 7.2 to 7.3% mark as the government's crimping of credit growth bites.
The data will also be important to gauge whether the administration is comfortable with the likely lower GDP growth number.
The forecast is based on the previous two months' weaker data, including investment, consumption and industrial data.
Whether the lower GDP growth translates into policy stimulus will likely depend on the severity of any reduction and reaction to it.
Even at a 7.2 or 7.3% GDP growth level, should not prove too much of a problem and the lower growth would allow further selective weeding out of "shadow banking" practices.
On balance, probability indicates there will not be any policy stimulus to avoid a widening deficit and rising inflation.
The government has flagged it would step up infrastructure construction and development of central and western China which has lagged other regions.
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