GGE 25.0% 0.3¢ grand gulf energy limited

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, page-5

  1. 1,562 Posts.
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    R15, for me Louise is only important as it and the other Masur one will confirm a reasonable resource in the Dome. When that happens I believe the bigger picture will be evident to a broader audience and those holding today will be well positioned.

    I was playing today with some history and benchmarking and it is interesting to view the SP over past few years. I watch 18 and have averaged their numbers to get a O&G number which I guess may be indicative of the sector but it is a guess.



    The 18 all have production, at this time imo any not producing are too risky for me and there is enough low hanging fruit already with the producers. It is hard to value reserves but production is easy. Many non producers have cash but not enough to meet their plans without CR's or farmouts which dilute current SP due to poor overall market sentiment to the sector. With some recent peer TH and CR's sentiment imo is not likely to improve as June 30 approaches. That situation makes our position "enviable" imo.

    I am using the boed as my guide to value and potential, if correct and without Louise our value imo is between the $50k and $90k per boed then we add the cash and some value for the reserves. We are currently producing around 290 boed and Feb cash should be around $2m with Louise paid for (my guess)

    It is good to have a plan and think a few would have similar thoughts, big question though is how many wells do we have planned and what we will do with the free cash. Only when we know that will we be able to fully value the potential but my guess is it is much higher than 0.025.

    As you say not advice, just rambling and all opinion.
    Well done with your average I believe you are well placed, I'm at 0.01 so don't really care what happens now.

    Cheers


 
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