You may well be right that I have a bias to the negative .... I guess following a stock and losing money on it for four years will do that to you. Although if you reviewed my CCU posts from earlier this year, you would note that I had a positive "bias", so I like to believe that my view is not preconceived, but based on the actual performance of the company.
I can't make investments based on the assumption that a major shareholder will continue to act as a benefactor. I've not experienced a major shareholder that has continued to support a company without significantly increasing its equity stake at the expense of other shareholders (or at least required an option in their favour to do so).
If Magna didn't extend the loan, CCU would have been insolvent this month ... that's not a negative bias, that's just plain numbers (and I note that until the CBA facility is re-negotiated, this may still be the case).
With the current POS and production levels, CCU doesn't generate positive cashflow (negative). That said, who knows what Magna and the CBA will agree to in the future. They may well continue to support CCU (positive). This is why I post "no sentiment" in relation to this stock .... its simply a recognition that I can't predict how things will play out.
You've noted some of my suggestions that have not played out. Then again, this "negative bias" allowed me to minimise my losses by getting out between 16-18c .... so for now at least there's some merit to the view.
Seasons greetings, and a sincere GLTA.
CCU Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held