starting to go long at $3.65, page-9

"Earning wont be anywhere near 30c per share

As for going long wake me when the mining boom starts in 20 odd years please"

its comments such as these which make it so easy for me to make money over the longer term.

I often get caught with initial buy positions being too early. So long as I don't go in to fast, there is plenty of time for my hypothesis to work out.

Total portfolio performance is what counts, this financial year I am up more than 50%.

As to your comment about 30c per share, this may be true for 2013, in fact analysts are predicting around 27c per share.

But what about after that??????

Companies are organic, they react to changing circumstances.

For myself 2013 earnings are in the bag, they are becoming irrelevant. I am trying to piece 'the earnings fog' several years out.

My hypothesis is NOT based on earnings recovering to anything like 2010-2012 levels. Just a normalisation, a reversion to the mean, under more moderate business trading conditions.

We are not talking about a $10 share price anymore.

As commodity prices settle down the AU$ will come down as well, this will provide a buffer.
The labour government WILL be out in Sept and along with them all these crazy green policies.

We have majority liberal state governments, and will have a Fed liberal govt in Oct.
Once the elections are done and dusted, watch for a partial increases in business certainty.

Any sign of earnings stability and FWD share price will increase significantly from current levels.

By the time Mr and Mrs Average realise this the opportunities will have been priced in.