waiting, page-4

I actually think that about 90% of what is going on economically has nothing to do with Gillard (as much as I dislike her). But that's a discussion for another forum.

I'm thinking that the economy will seriously slump out at some point in the next few years. All sectors other than resources (ie HGL's sectors) have had a very rough few years. The last year or two has been an absolute bloodbath for mining company investment due to global effects + AUD. And Oil and Gas companies have been a bloodbath for a couple of months now(I work in the resources sector, the horror going on in private is unimaginable from reading what is publicly said). Coupled with that fact that the eastern states will have their gas price double soon thanks to LNG exports, it's not going to be pleasant.

My current thoughts, given the most recent guidance is that HGL will have at least a year or two of very rough times, but at it's core the whole thing is survivable as a large company. This is the advantage of conglomerates after all, since something they sell is always in demand. If they give out another dividend this year I will be very upset though.

The question will be picking the bottom for this stock, since that could be anywhere, even far below where we are now. Assuming the board is remotely sane, there will be no dividend, which will remove the guidance a lot of yield hunters use to guide their picks.