imminent anniversary, page-6

In trying to look at the signing off of PPA's in some realistic fashion from a sustainable financial point of view, it would appear that the priorities might be :-

** signing the largest of the 15 or so projects before the smaller ones, especially those with established funding routes.

** signing the cheapest purchase price projects before the most expensive so the averaged purchase price is established before granting licences to the more expensive purchase price projects which draw on government power subsidies, therefore reducing PLN's bottom line. See the previously provided link to PLN's mini financial statements for 2012.

** taking all of the above into consideration when determining future years financial positions, especially an election year when opposition parties use every complaint available to win votes.

IMV the latest push toward geothermal project progress is entirely politically motivated for the above reason while SBY is positioning one of his deputies for succession at the next election. You may hear this man's statements regarding Sarulla from time to time, there is a tinge of desperation in them, possibly due to SBY's present low voter approval rating.

( PLN is Raya-Pax/Bakrie's ONLY customer btw so worth being aware of their financial status if the credit card champagne is to be put on owned outright ice. :)

We know the economics of changing from Diesel to Geothermal make sense, imv it is the cost of making that change sustainable through Indonesia's power subsidy pricing scheme and subsequently PLN's poor financial ability to pay proper present generator costs to producers that has been a major factor in the approval delays.

The exact same situation occurred with Gas generated electricity during the period 2008 to 2011 during which time there were examples of fully built Indonesian privately owned generators sitting idle due to inability to buy the power. 34 gas generator projects were stalled during this period. PLN's financial position is anything but secure imho although this is changing with gradually higher prices to consumers.

promises are no substitute for position