MOG 0.00% 0.5¢ moby oil & gas ltd

maclean-1 next after gilbert-1, page-12

  1. 570 Posts.
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    trade4profit, I like your MOGO formula (in fact I like and look forward to your posts overall). You cover what is, I suspect, a little appreciated fact about MOG, although prices later this week moved to discount MOGOA over MOGO at last. Also trade4profit, thanks for putting mme on Share Scene straight about CBA increasing their MOG holdings (which mme had erroneously interpreted as a selldown by CBA).

    Here is your formula revised and used to predict MOGO based on MOG and MOGOA:

    1 MOGO = 1 MOG + 1 MOGOA

    => 1 MOGO + 20c = 1 MOG + 1 MOGOA

    => 1 MOGO = 1 MOG + 1 MOGOA - 20c

    Here are the prices over the last week:

    date MOG MOGOA MOGO MOGO by formula
    3/10/2005 22.5 10 9.7 12.5
    4/10/2005 19.5 8.8 8.1 8.3
    5/10/2005 18 10 7.7 8
    6/10/2005 17 6.6 7.7 3.6
    7/10/2005 18 6 8.2 4

    But what is really facinating (as you indicated above) is that MOGO become worth more than MOG - as MOG rises if hydrocarbon signs are evident in Gilbert or McLean-1. Here is a crude way of demonstrating this by progressively adding 1 cent to MOG and MOGOA based on Friday's close:

    date MOG MOGOA MOGO by formula
    7/10/2005 18 6 4
    plus 1 cent 19 7 6 extrapolation from here
    plus 1 cent 20 8 8
    plus 1 cent 21 9 10
    plus 1 cent 22 10 12
    plus 1 cent 23 11 14
    plus 1 cent 24 12 16
    plus 1 cent 25 13 18
    plus 1 cent 26 14 20
    plus 1 cent 27 15 22
    plus 1 cent 28 16 24
    plus 1 cent 29 17 26
    plus 1 cent 30 18 28
    plus 1 cent 31 19 30
    plus 1 cent 32 20 32
    plus 1 cent 33 21 34
    plus 1 cent 34 22 36
    plus 1 cent 35 23 38
    plus 1 cent 36 24 40
    plus 1 cent 37 25 42
    plus 1 cent 38 26 44
    plus 1 cent 39 27 46
    plus 1 cent 40 28 48
    plus 1 cent 41 29 50
    plus 1 cent 42 30 52

    Here's hoping for an oily drill bit this weekend.
 
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