short term future, page-10

Well I have been camping at Double Island point north of Noosa last few days so I missed the upgrade in profit, and probably would have tried to get any shares sub $1.70.

Oh well, lets look at the numbers then and see if there is still value here:

So proforma 2013 (assuming full year contribution Hofco)
EBIT: 16m (11+5)
Net Debt: 14m

Interest: 1m
NPAT: $10.5m

EPS: 21c
Div (25% payout): 5c

Div yield: 2.5%
PE: 9
EV/earnings: 11

So assuming no growth moving forward from this point, TTN looks fully valued to me.

So where will the growth come from:

Hofco I think is the key, so they are generating $5m EBIT at 50% utilisation, so I am guessing TTN management believe they can get that rate up, so potentially at 100% hofco has EBIT power of $10m.

I cant see them growing the business on current rigs, because they are sitting at close to 100%, so their nectar and camp hire businesses may chug along.

Another x-factor is purchase of more Rigs, they seem to be in serious demand.

TTN certainly kicking goals and in the right sector. If they can grow the Hofco business and keep momentum going in other parts of business then we could be staring down the barrel of 25-30c eps 6c-8c div for 2014. Pe of 10 on those figures gives us $2.50-$3.00 price target. A lot of ifs though, I think $2.00 will be a roadblock in the short term though, and hopefully broader markets wont collapse.

If I hadnt sold so many at $1.40, I would be locking in some around here. However with a reduced position I will just hold tight now. TTN is probably in the hold forever basket atm, until management screw up, reminds me a little of MXI.