last chance to exit?, page-9

Hi Brisbanecam,

Suspect you might not be using troy ounces.

If you did 80000t/mth * 80g/t * 16oz/lb * 1lb/454g * 3 months you get about 676,652 ounces.

However, the common ounce which has 16 per 454g pound is exactly 28.375g, whereas the troy ounce is about 10% heavier.

1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams

Redoing that way we get about 617koz for the quarter.

Also need to account for recovery %, table 2 in Appendix 1 of the last quarterly states 65%, so that comes down to about 400koz.

80g/t seems at the high end looking at the ore reserve grade in the same table.

439koz produced up to Dec 31, FY13 guidance is 1 - 1.2Moz.
If we take 400koz as guidance for June '13 qtr, that takes us up to 839koz, meaning somewhere between 160koz and 360koz for the March qtr. Given their stated problems with Jan production, will probably be at the lower end of forecast range. At the low end of the range would be consistent with company history too....

So pretty much all adds up. If we can actually manage a 400koz quarter, we would finally be at the 1.2Moz pa production target that has been floating around for some time now.