Freehold...
I am afraid I completely disagree about your coal assessment.. although I don't know the MC of the other Botswana coalers so you could be right on the comparison to peers part...
This coal is rubbish.. see below:
-High strip ratios (according to todays ann, 10-1 to 60-1 SR)
-below average calorific values compared to worldwide peers (mongolia, SA, Canada, US, Australia)
-Low yielding, it has lower yield barriers often in 20-30% range and uppers rarely above 80%. Knowing the technical mining capabilities of botswana they would likely see an average yield of below 50 due to dilution
-Total sulphur is on the upper border of export spec, even at the best of times, with lower seams often above. And thats post-wash.
-It has fairly high (but not hugely high) inherent moisture at 9%
Ontop of all that, it has to look at 'innovative transport options' because obviously the infrastructure isn't there to support it.
the coal could only be sold at a sub-thermal export price (currently sitting at $85/tonne AUD) which I don't think they could mine and wash for that price, let alone make back any capital investment.
Coal price needs to be a fair bit higher, and infrastructure more advanced for this coal to become economically viable.
They should concentrate on Specimens reef, thats where this speccies real value lies IMO.
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