re-hashing old posts...sorry, page-3

millertime,

It would be disingenuous of me to talk only in bouquet terms without drawing attention to some of the brickbats for Breville.

Be aware, if you are not already, that BRG has a distribution agreement with a major player in the US beverage market, a company called Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).

GMCR own the Keurig brand of single-serve coffee machines which BRG markets and distributes, under a licencing agreement, in Canada.

This is a highly profitable business for BRG, and while BRG company has never confirmed any figure, I estimate this arrangment contributes some 10% of BRG EBIT.

This is a 5-year agreement that comes up for renewal (or not, as the case might be) in mid-2013, I believe.

Now many analysts say that GMCR will continue with its current multi-channel distribution strategy and therefore the licencing arrangment with BRG in relation to distributing Keurig products in Canada will be rolled over for a further 5 years, there's always a risk that it doesn't, for whatever reason.

Just worth bearing in mind, given BRG's current valuation metrics for FY13 of 14.6x P/E and 8.8x EV/EBITDA, although this will not change my view of the long-term prospects for the business.

Cam