ok i am having trouble stripping out the numbers i want from the analysts work but I will try another approach.
If you completely forget Mbila (which is not only wise but real) and you just look at kangwang as a standalone.
Net margin all up $26/ton
1.2m ton per year
Zyl share net income $16.4m per year
Zyl share of capex $58m once off
If you discount the cash flows over 10 years and deduct the capex, you get a huge positive NPV and a net discounted return on cap of 32%.
Chuck in a couple of resources they indicate has been tossed on their table to mull over and it looks smikko.
Oh oh before I forget, forgetting Mbila entirely, May I draw your attention to the fact Patersons put a DCF Valuation on Kangwane project of $90m ( Zyls Share) = 16cents per share.
So if Mbila has turned to shit, how do they get a target price of 5c when they have a valuation of .16c on Kangwane project.
I thought they were a bucket shop when I was in the game now i am certain
Flux
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