sp at .30 - prediction, page-21

And a Merry Christmas and Happy, Safe and especially Prosperous New Year to everybody.

Fascinating, informative thread BTW.

This recent Glencore news release makes me wonder if:

# Their Cobar mine is approaching/has already approached the cut-off for economic usefulness. (Gleaned more from what's not said than what is said)

# Loss of another mine to nationalisation must have stung them even though (as they say) they have been able to off-set the loss of production.

# Prospect of participating and acquiring a brand new Cobar style mine already boasting a surfeit of rich deposits of desirable minerals and promise of more exciting discoveries to come.

# Next door to their declining? Cobar mine.

# Throw in a politically stable country to boot.


While the full report can be accessed from here:

http://www.glencore.com/documents/GLEN_Quarter3_2012.pdf

The information recorded below is an extract there from.

NEWS RELEASE
Baar, 1 November 2012
IMS & Third Quarter 2012 Production Report

INDUSTRIAL
Glencore’s industrial portfolio saw an overall improved volume performance during Q3 in sequential terms and year-on-year, with
the performance of our energy division, particularly noteworthy. Although the financial outcome in our Industrial operations will
remain dependent on commodity price levels, the 10-15% annual volume growth forecast from 2011-2015 should continue to provide us with incremental positive operating leverage.
Kazzinc gold production rose 18% year-on-year with recovery rates continuing to improve. On 11 October 2012, Glencore completed the acquisition of 18.91% of Kazzinc, increasing the Group’s interest in Kazzinc to 69.61%. At Katanga copper production rose
3% year-on-year, with cathode production up 14%. Copper cathode increased 9% in Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012. At Mutanda,
copper production rose 31% year-on-year, producing at an annualised rate of 81,000 tonnes at the end of September.
There was significant growth in coal production from South Africa, including a large increase in export capacity through Richards
Bay Coal Terminal following the inclusion of both Optimum and Umcebo from the start of the year. At Aseng, oil production was
ahead of expectation at 62,000 bbls/day. The Alen field is on schedule and budget for first production in H2 2013.
BALANCE SHEET
Committed liquidity headroom at 30 September 2012 was approximately $ 9 billion, at similar levels to 30 June 2012. S&P reaffirmed BBB (watch positive) rating on 25 July 2012 and Moody’s confirmed Baa2 rating (outlook under review) on 26 September
2012. In July 2012, Glencore issued CHF 450 million ($ 473 million) 2.625% interest bearing bonds due December 2018, while in
October, the 364-day committed $ 1.7 billion metals’ working capital borrowing base facility was refinanced with a new equivalent facility at an increased amount of $ 2.22 billion.

OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Kazzinc (Glencore interest: 69.61%, increased from 50.7% on 11 October 2012)
• Gold production from own sources increased 18% over the comparable period in 2011, reflecting the continuing ramp-up at Altyntau Kokshetau and an increase in gold recovered from the lead smelter, following the decision to prioritise gold over lead.
The increase in total silver production reflects the increased extraction of silver from purchased concentrates.
• Lower lead production reflects reduced throughput during the ramp-up of the new IsaSmelt lead smelter (commissioned in August
2012) and the decision to process gold rich concentrates at the expense of lead prior to such commissioning.
• Copper production from own sources was 8% lower than the comparable period, however copper cathode production increased from 9,000 tonnes to 37,000 tonnes as Kazzinc’s new copper smelter (commissioned in H2 2011) continued its ramp-up.
• On 11 October 2012, Glencore completed the acquisition of 18.91% of Kazzinc, increasing its interest to 69.61%.
Katanga (Glencore interest: 75.2%)
• Total ore mined was 4,128,300 tonnes, an increase of 15% over the same period last year, which at a grade of 4.04% resulted in
contained copper in ore mined of 166,700 tonnes, a 6% increase.
• Ore mined at KTO underground mine was 1,377,900 tonnes, a 15% increase over the comparable 2011 period, at an average grade
of 3.65%. Ore mined at KOV open pit was 2,750,400 tonnes, 38% above the same period last year, at an average grade of 4.59%
in Q3 (4.00% for H1 2012) as higher grade ore was accessed, following the removal of mud from the bottom of the KOV pit.
• Ore milled at KTC concentrator was 3,511,600 tonnes, an increase of 17% over the comparable 2011 period.
• Copper produced in metal and concentrate was 68,900 tonnes, an increase of 3%, with copper metal production increasing by
14% over the same period in 2011.
• Copper and cobalt production was hampered by general power disruptions in the DRC during the first nine months of 2012.
Total lost production during the period was 1,187 hours or 49 days.
• The new power converter under a World Bank power project and the new synchronous condenser as part of Katanga’s agreement with SNEL are expected to be commissioned in Q4 2012 and will improve the availability and reliability of power. The commissioning has been affected by the transport industry strike in South Africa during September and October 2012 as well as a strike at the Zambian-DRC border during October 2012. Significant electricity supply improvements are expected in the medium term from the joint Power Project being undertaken between Katanga, Kansuki and Mutanda in partnership with SNEL, as announced in March 2012.
• Katanga expects to produce the first copper cathode through the new Solvent Extraction plants and converted electro-winning facility in Q4 2012, also somewhat delayed due to the strikes noted above.
For further information please visit www.katangamining.com | third Quarter 2012 | 4
Mutanda (Glencore interest: 60.0%)
• Copper production, including cathode and copper in concentrate, was 60,600 tonnes, representing a 31% increase on the comparable period. Cathodes contributed 57,700 tonnes, almost double the prior year period. The ramp-up schedule to reach the installed 110,000 copper tank house capacity remains on target.
• Cobalt production, including cobalt in hydroxide and cobalt in concentrate was 5,800 tonnes, broadly in line with the prior year period. Mutanda remains on track to complete the cobalt circuit in Q4 2012, resulting in 23,000 tonnes per annum of cobalt in hydroxide production capacity.
• A dedicated power generation plant was mechanically completed in Q3 2012 to provide reliable power to the sulphuric acid plant.
• Glencore’s increase to a 60% indirect equity interest in Mutanda in May 2012 represents a significant first step to achieve the anticipated merger of Mutanda and Kansuki, which is expected to form a combined entity having an installed capacity of 200,000 tonnes per annum of copper and 23,000 tonnes of cobalt in hydroxide by H2 2013. This expansion in capacity from Mutanda’s existing 110,000 tonnes per annum to 200,000 tonnes represents the first stage of the combined operations’ expansion plans.
• Mutanda is also currently preparing a feasibility study for the construction of a 100,000 tonnes (of copper contained) sulphide concentrator. The study is expected to be completed during H1 2013.
Kansuki (Glencore interest: 37.5%)
• Glencore holds a 50% interest in Kansuki Investments Sprl which in turn holds a 75% interest in the owner of the Kansuki concession, giving Glencore an effective interest of 37.5%. Kansuki is a 185 square kilometre copper and cobalt pre-development project, bordering the Mutanda concession. $ 387 million of capital expenditure for mine and plant development has been committed, of which $ 298 million had been spent as at 30 September 2012. Exploration of the Kansuki concession is ongoing.
Mopani (Glencore interest: 73.1%)
• Year to date contained copper in ore mined was 85,300 tonnes a 2% decline over the same period of 2011. Contained copper in concentrate was 60,800 tonnes.
• Gross anode production from the smelter was 12% lower than 2011, reflecting the planned smelter maintenance shutdown that impacted production levels during H1 2012.
• Finished copper production from own sources was 72,200 tonnes, a 2% reduction over the corresponding period in 2011. The reduction mainly relates to the Mufulira site, where production was impacted by the planned smelter shutdown. Total finished copper production, including third party purchased materials and toll, was similarly impacted by the smelter shutdown and exacerbated somewhat by the quality and availability of third party material received.
• Cobalt production of 229 tonnes was substantially lower than the comparable 2011 period, due to the cobalt roaster being placed on care and maintenance during H2 2011.
• The current capital expenditure projects to increase mine production (including the Synclinorium project) and further improve the smelter remain on track to time and budget.
• Mopani announced earlier in the year that the smelter upgrade project, including improving sulphur emissions capture to above 97%, is expected to be completed by December 2013, 18 months ahead of the schedule initially agreed with the Zambian authorities.
Other Zinc (Los Quenuales, Sinchi Wayra, AR Zinc, Portovesme, Rosh Pinah)
• A shift toward some lower grade ore bodies at Los Quenuales and Sinchi Wayra resulted in lower production of zinc, lead and silver in concentrates.
• The nationalisation of the Colquiri mine at Sinchi Wayra resulted in no tin production since June 2012 and this has also impacted lead and zinc production.
• A strong performance from AR Zinc and the acquisition of Rosh Pinah have largely succeeded (excluding tin) to offset the negative production impact of head grade reductions and the Colquiri nationalisation.
Other Copper (Cobar, Pasar, Punitaqui, Sable)
• Copper metal production was down due to a fire at Pasar in January which stopped production until the restart in July 2012. Following a month of ramp-up in July, production volumes in August and September were in line with original expectations.
• Copper concentrates production from own sources was down 7% over the comparable period due to temporary operational issues at Cobar relating to an electrical line failure and delays to underground backfilling activities.
Alumina/Aluminium
Sherwin Alumina (Glencore interest: 100%)
• Production was 997,800 tonnes, a decrease of 10% compared to the prior year period, primarily related to the overhaul of a calciner in Q1 2012.
Ferroalloys/Nickel/Cobalt
Murrin Murrin (Glencore interest: 100%)
• Own sourced production was 24,100 tonnes of nickel and 1,700 tonnes of cobalt, higher by 14% and 18% respectively compared
to the same period in 2011. This reflected record production during the second and third quarters owing to consistent plant
availability and record throughput.
• In response to the lower nickel price environment, Murrin has implemented a ‘Margin Improvement Plan’ designed to deliver
sizeable cost and cash savings over the remainder of 2012 and into 2013.