just a few thoughts, page-3

Hi agian Jantimont.

Probability just doesn't work that way.

Its like spending millions on research into the probability of a throw of dice and coming up with a mean result of 1+2+3+4+5+6=21
Divide that by 6 and you get 3.5
You throw your first dice and get a 1
You then panic, do an announcement, say you have no idea about the mean , go into hiding and declare it was because someone did poor calculations.

It really depends on how accurate a jorc is and how much faith the board has in it.

If it is an established mechanism with a high defree of accuracy then they have had not enough faith in thectechniques used. If uncomfortable with the techniques used then they shouldn't have gone ahead.

If their jorc had a huge sampling error they should have known that. If it didn't they have panicked unnecessarily.

You really need a geologist to give their thoughts because my science background is biological.