merger details out, page-105

aldous

great post. agree on it all

the questions i have asked and discussed i can see are so far also being debated here also.

no safety net for base price of efs asset, just a merge.. so you get 30% of the efs in the end. my calculations yesterday was about $12,900'ish for the efs for SEA. so as a holder you get 30% back by having a SEA share. so the end price is 30% more so about $18k when the deal is done. Basically if the SEA sp goes up the price per acre equation will follow, and obviously is it tanks, thus will the sp of the price per acre equation.

can i ask a question here, should the correct sp valuation for TXN be 50% of a SEA share, or should you add consideration for the 30% you retain of the efs and the .14 cents for the talon cash at the demerger?


but what the sea price did tank, what if it did happen, a black swan even, if we held TXN we would be liquidated and the predators would pick the bones. predators being the ones thinks txn would go broke anyways and basically walked out of deals imho. But a black swan event with SEA would see a vastly different outcome as that company has capital which can cope with the EFS program

so merge vs cash for SEA was smarter leaving cash to extract the oil and pure profit in the outcome.

not happy with the deal none the less, but as serendipity pointed out, the alternative was none the less vastly undesirable

imho the predators have underestimated the ultimate end game for txn, and did not forsee this scenario, so for their respective shareholders, a huge opportunity missed, and obviously their major shareholders may not be satisfied with the SEA and TXN merger, and may question their respective strategies now, but for the victor, SEA shareholders would be delighted with an obvious ball tearer of an windfall. as much as the outcome is not what we expected nor really desired, and for the likes of rob douglas a very distasteful and long drawn out slog at getting a deal done, the SEA outcome imho is with deep reflection and hindsight an outcome that perhaps need some congratulations less derision.

if you heard the last questions given to john in the phone conference yesterday, by a chap called richard i think... you could hear the squirming as the answer came regarding the cash position, which i believe some opportunists were hoping was the end game for txn and the obvious next step has no possibility now

Tilleydog

txn will be reimbursed for all ops expenses from 1st oct, so when the merge happens, SEA pays back the expenses to texon, and then the merged Talon ends up with the capital texon had on that day. so about $17 mill if that was the figure that day

.14 cents i guess.. does that sound correct?