All of your points are valid and I also haven't seen anything that is a significant risk this far.
The phase III results in January (which will almost certainly be positive) should result in the next leg-up for the SP. Registration of artimist with WHO the next and after that a trade-sale announcement of the malaria assets subsidiary, which will be the significant SP accretion event.
I think part of the negative sentiment may be around oppies expiry date, which is imminent (and probably explained the 50% loss in EMSOA today). With $1M in the bank it would be nice to have the oppies exercised to contribute to the EMS balance sheet. A bit of promotion of their successes to make this happen wouldn't go amiss here.
I'm currently on a 3:2 oppies to heads ratio so I might cop a hit but I certainly knew that risk when I bought them. Personally, I'm thinking that if the heads are at the current price (or lower) then SC will roll them over again. If he doesn't that may be a concern.
The other thing that I find confusing (but not disturbing) is the next set of trials. I'm unsure why EMS chooses to do another trial to determine efficasy of sublingual delivery versus intra-muscular and suppository delivery of artemether.
Personally, I would much rather them being focussed on using the sub-lingual technology for delivery of ACT's (artemisinin combination therapies), which according to the recent conferance, were the preferred method to slow the drug tolerance problem developing in SE Asia. Perfect job for SUDA, to my mind.
Anyway, all good with EMS by my take, but pure speculation on my part also.
bluebush
EMS Price at posting:
3.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
