I agree that nothing will happen until the liquidators have sold BMG's interest. As previously noted, if no one wants to step into BMG's shoes in the EXACT same JV, then CAP could make a low offer and buy it back for less than $13M. The Liquidator has a mandate via a Court Order to sell BMG's assets and wind up the company. It needs to test the market to determine market value and then accept the market price for the asset. Liquidators date for closing of expressions of interest in tomorrow.
BMG's JV agreement is in default as the $25M was not paid. Whilst we have been told about the default clause that triggers the option to buy back at $13M, we have not been told what other default clauses are in the original JV agreement. Those default clauses may scare off many otherwise interested parties who would be very interested if they could negotiate their own terms with CAP directly.
As for lack of management comment, it may be that they can't say too much, especially until things are uncertain and not final. I think Nick Sheard commented whenever he could earlier in the BMG litigation and will tell the market what he can when he can.
Iron ore price seems to be stabilising comfortably above the US$78 used in the feasability study and it would need to fall closer to that over an extended period of 6 months or more for me to question Hawsons (and that CAP can repeat Hawsons at the other end of the Braemar)
The run up from 20 cents to 40 cents earlier this year didn't take much and I don't think it will take much this time either as soon as there is clarity about BMG's interest.
CAP Price at posting:
21.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
