speculative investment and target sp

Greetings particularly to Sydney & RB,
I certainly hope you guys both turn out to be right in your predictions of where our company is headed, However I also think that it is essential if we are ever going to get there, that Kosenar and others continue to ask and seek answers to the difficult questions. I am particularly encouraged that a few more posters are showing an interest in our stock and joining the debate, which for the most part still appears pretty civil.
Someone (possibly RB) asked what others are looking for in terms of a short term SP. After thinking about this for a while I can say that I think 15 cents in the near term may well be achievable. I have used no science but merely a gut feel for what the IP may be worth discounted for all the shenanigans our board has shown itself capable of over recent years on the down side and then revised back up a bit after accepting in part the shared wisdom here that only a tiny percentage of the 111 million shares on issue are not tightly held (at least until the SP reaches something around 30 cents).
I was attracted to this company originally after reading about the SpermSep IP in a magazine or newspaper on a long haul flight in 2008. I was sufficiently interested to jot down the name or ASX code and to do a little research. From memory I bought my first parcel at 12 cents AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE SHARE CONSOLIDATION! Accordingly I have some sympathy for Factor X’s comments in a recent post:
We were told in 2006 that Gels were going to be the 10 bagger, then it was SpermSep in 2007 (which is still being promised), then BioEnquire in 2009 (BTW which resulted in an $8m loss last year!), then Singapharm in 2010, which morphed into PRIME which had a Philippine LOI which has seemed to evaporate with no news.

Along the way, every year, at the AGM we're told about being an ASX300 company. A few more shares are issued to the board and a few of their mates and the price goes down as does the market cap.

This trend has been the case since back in the days of Gradipore, where these same guys were in charge and destroyed value as they promised that we'd be an ASX300 company.

If you have any doubt about the destruction of value for NuSep holders, there's still info available at NuSepBoardReform.info. If you invested at the start of NuSep you've lost 99.2%. For those investor, these guys need a 128 bagger to break even.

Personally I have continued to buy (like RB says he has) throughout the intervening years and averaged my unit price down to the point where I am now showing a paper profit! For me this is definitely a speculative investment (if that is not a contradiction in terms). This concept is perhaps best explained by the Australian Financial Planning Handbook (Thomson) Chap 18:
“Speculation with funds can be distinguished from investment of funds by the considerably higher level of risk that the former will fail to provide the desired return over the given period of time. Further, although a successful speculation may well provide a far higher return, there is an element at the outset that requires a greater degree of conjecture to see that positive result occurring. The decision to speculate may well rely on an exercise of theoretical or abstract reasoning that is difficult to justify objectively in terms of achieving a client's goals. Having stated this, it is worth noting that nearly all successful and experienced fund managers acknowledge the gut instinct factor in investment portfolio selection.”
My view is that for NuSep to achieve its full potential (and that of its IP) our company has to grow up! It is all very well to have entrepreneurs running the company in its start up phase, indeed it’s desirable. And I join others in cautiously applauding the deals they have said they have concluded. However at some point as part of the development process the professional managers schooled in corporate governance, bean counting and detailed reporting (as opposed to spin) have to be allowed to take control.
Interestingly the recent comment about professional managers regarding management as a joke is precisely what gives us small investors, who are prepared to take a speculative position and hold, the opportunity for “multiple baggers”. Once the professional fund managers are prepared to take a serious look it will be too late and the stock, if we hold it at all, will then be transferred to our income producing investment portfolio.
Even more interesting is that the directors and their associates who hold the vast bulk of the shares on issue must know this too. If their holding in NuSep is their “superannuation” it will be in their interests to not only get more runs on the board but to see NuSep transformed into a mature company.
Our speculative investment is what capitalism is all about…taking a calculated risk to get these exciting and ethical products to market while being handsomely rewarded for our patience.
But for the time being MM’s short term target = 15 cents before end of calendar 2012.
Good luck to all and of course DYOR.
Regards