Jimmy! Some parts I agree. CITIC and Sino midwest bought those projects at peak of market. Probably the same as CFE's Cape Lambert project, but no royalty. They didn't realise about the extra cost (eg can't bring their own cheap workers).
But... the main problems are (been saying for years):
1.) CP's special fee (aka royalties) cf to other mag projects CP tried the same with Resourcehouse float.
2.) Not the owner of the project, ie if ARH is insolvent, this 1BT (or 50% of International Minerals' 2 BT) can NOT be iliquidated to return some money for holders. While CP's subscription money is for ARH directors, they also work for Mineralogy.
Why not do a SPP (max. $15,000 per holder) at 15% discount?
3.) Low quality, high cost. Lots of mag. projects in Australia are doomed without DSO. Compare to Gina's Roy Hill project. How many investors lined up?
Compare to DMA (1Bt+, mc $10m), FWL (570mt, mc $7m) & PDY (850mt, mc $20m), CAP... if you want, help yourself to cheap shares. They all looking for DSO.
Current sp is NOT cheap. You must remember: 1) Every 6 mths CP inject more money to issue more shares 2) If (big "if") ARH gets JV partner, more ARH shares will be issued (eg new 400 million shares). If ARH shares issued (not International Minerals shares) to JV partner, this mean CP will get FREE-CARRY for 2BT project (CP owns 50%). JV needs to issue shares in International Minerals (not ARH) AND CP must contribute to CAPEX.
All I can say is China does not need anymore NEW mag. Fe projects. There are more quality DSO from Africa coming out. China has massive empty apartments for sell, no buyers. China is focus on domestic consumption instead building more houses. Spain is about to ask ECB for bail-out since bond sell was extremely disappointing. Spain is massive compare to Greece.
From Chinese point of view, yes CITIC under-est. lots of things but all that will point at CP (eg royalty). It is a bit unfair, but at the end of day still cost massive regardless who's fault is it.
ARH Price at posting:
16.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held