I found this article (from the height of the GFC) August, 9th 2009 on Kagara.
On the Admiral Bay project in WA, UBS said...
"We currently attribute a notional $100 million (16 cents a share) to the project but admit that this could be higher if the project progresses to the development stage."
For everybody's information here is the link in it's entirety.
On a further note, GFTG Shengtuo Metals ( a branch of China's Guangdong Foreign Trade Group Co Ltd ) which is Kagaras' top shareholder with about 16.7 % is just below the takeover threshold of 19.9%. Now since March 7th 2012 about 26% of the companies shares have changed hands, which means that someone is holding a key chunk of the company.
Also worth noting is that Kagara still owns 61.9% of Mungana Mines(MUX)(previously spun off by Kagara) which is capatilsed at 29 million and has sizable gold production potential and cash on hand of about $26 million. Kagara's holding is in escrow and they can't sell it until June 10, this year.
A take over would not only gain control of MUX but it's kitty of cash making in my opinion, a takeover of Kagara before June 10th at the latest a highly likely outcome, making it possibly the deal of the decade.
Also and cleverly it would seem that the bulk (not profit traders that bought at 16 cents) of the unknown sellers between 17 and 20 cents seem to be there as an artificial ceiling which is there to spook the small shareholders into selling on the cheap whilst they use their time in the next few months organising the takeover.
This tactic has been used before and wouldn't surprise me now.
For example by doing this those wishing to takeover could easily approach the number 2 shareholder (De Bortoli Family) and others who bought in recently and offer them a way out of their holdings in such a way that would minimise their capital losses.
Now that they hold the shares they can keep the ceiling and flush out the leftovers, why not. Every piece they buy now will mitigate the potential takeover price they would be required to offer for a full take over.
GFTG Shengtuo Metals aside, with the current market capitalisation of about $125 million and with US interest rates now longer staying down for too long it would also make sense for private equity to lock in and borrow at low interest now and buy Kagara and take it private. Also with Kagara's cash on hand from their recent sale of Lounge Lizzard they would be basically be buying it for a bargain.
Anyway, some thoughts to ponder...
KZL Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
