orphan annie, analytica and the autostart, page-21

As usual, I have to waste my time pointing out how Woodduck is misconstruing data to try to back his claims. I really have to spend my valuable research time to show that this guy at worst, really doesn't have any, idea or is trying to mislead by ignoring certain data, or at best, is not very thorough in his research.

He has knocked up some pie chart showing potential market shares between the two companies. Firstly, this chart assumes complete world domination and monopoly.

False claim no.1

MLA max potential market share is not $88m. This is the max size of the Australian market. Please add UK (and NZ) as per http://www.analyticamedical.com/downloads/2011/20111130-ASX-ALT-WiseOwlReport.pdf.
That should bump the claimed MLA figure to around $400m.

False claim no.2

Woodduck claims expanded distribution to EU, Asia and Middle East were due to some loose terminology in an announcement. Okay, here is the announcement:

According to a JOINT press release by MLA and ALT in 2010 as per http://www.analyticamedical.com/downloads/2010/20100413-ASX-ALT-MLA-Agreement.pdf announcing the distribution agreement, the title of which was "MEDICAL AUSTRALIA AND ANALYTICA SIGN LICENSING AND DISTRIBUTION AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIA, NEW
ZEALAND, UK, EU, ASIA AND MIDDLE EAST" and in the detail "initially into the Australian, New Zealand and UK markets, with a view to expanding into key Asian, Middle Eastern and European markets."

So if you want to take the heading of a joint press release as being a loose comment, well, surely that says something about your credibility.

I can only guess that these markets might add another $1bn or so to the potential MLA max potential market size if we want to continue down the path of comparing potential market sizes assuming world domination.

What has not been factored into this very crude attempt to try to somehow paint ALT in a most favourable light is that the profit share on sales would by far favour MLA. Manufacturers and distributors typically get the lion's share of the spoils with the licensors getting a free carried (are R&D) smaller share (the royalty). I'm not even going to try to estimate and compare potential revenue between these two companies assuming they both achieve full world domination of these markets.

My original comparison between the 2 companies was on the basis that right now:

- one company is earning dollars and the other isn't.
- one company requires/relies upon the other to make sales in order for it to make money - Right now!
- one company earns revenue from many other markets (in the heathcare, veterinary and medical instruments markets), whilst the other company has no other revenue source.

If you want to start knocking up pretty graphs based on potential world domination of your product lines, the potential maximum market share of all of MLA's other products would have to be in the 10's if not 100's of billions of dollars.

Seriously, enough of these ridiculous comparisons - its all pie in the sky.

My original comment stands - MLA would appear to be a safer bet right now if you had to compare the two companies.

BTW, I am TOUing that ridiculous pie chart post on the basis that the data is incomplete and misleading - refer this post for background.