new year, new debt restructure, page-10

Overall I agree with your analysis.

There are some issues I do not understand with your analysis of the next quarter>

1. As you say the ALD overhead cost appears to be about $400/oz. I think this is enormous and ALD could do a lot to cut this overhead (e.g getting shot of some of the less effective directors and not replacing Greg Steemson would help) but in any case I cannot see why overheads should be pro-rata to production. As a worst case the overhead(at least for the next quarter) should be a fixed cost and therefore reduce as /oz amount
2 Costs should reduce a bit due to not having to pay the equipment lease which should have been repaid as part of the gold loan.
3. ALD don't seem to have been transparent about problems at Gold Ridge. The quarterly talks about mechanical problems at BOTH sites - they don't appear to have told us shareholders about the mechanical problems at Gold Ridge.
4. The use of HFO will not kick in until the June - Sept quarter and only at Simberi. Also the upgrade to 3.5Mt @ Simberi will be come on stream until 3rd quarter 2012. Hopefully some of the costs of this work have been paid off in this quarter (i.e not all $18M and $26M comes from the current quarter and is capitalized and spread).
5. Hopefully the appalling recovery rate at Gold Ridge (i.e 69.7% in Jul - Sept 2011 - not announced for this quarter) will improve.
6. Grade at Gold Ridge should improve with ore coming from Namachamata pit in this quarter
7. I can't reconcile where the $48.5m in cash +4,341 oz of Au declared for 30/9/11 went to.