So as Craig Marshall appears to have a reputation for creating multi billion share issue companies, what should we expect here as a cap raising?
Clearly the market is not going to bid up KEY on the acquisition and as probably 80% of all buying on the ASX is due to people acting illegally on confidential information,
I think we can assume we are going to get a dilution pretty quick sharp at these prices or we would have seen some on market buying. One can only assume the word is on the street of an imminent low priced capital raising.
So KEY has around 268m shares on issue after the initial disastrous few years, and assuming we need to raise a second/third/forth time (lost count) for Lidsey, our share of the TZ development capital, perhaps 2 or 3 million for these new WA projects and some 'spending money' too (KEY seems to need LOTS of that!), then my guess is we are probably looking at around a $10m cap raising straight off.
Now clearly there could be a pile of dough to be made off Tanzania and the UK, but management are keeping very mum on that so I think we can assume they don't want to telegraph upcoming cashflow to the market until after the dilution has happened.
Disappointingly, looking at the market, it is NOT going to be at 4c as I had hoped (this was where KEY was trading prior to the disastrous Zeta plan).
So I think we can assume we are going to get a massive dilution somewhere around here: 2c.
Any guesses on the price: Somewhere between 2.5 and 1.5c is my guess depending on how brutal the new CEO wants to be with the old shareholders.
It is possible that KEY management can have this at a 1 billion share company in a mere month's time merely by raising around $10 million at 1.5c, god forbid.
That price would likely be extremely lucrative for those set in the company at that price and for the rest of us on 98% losses, well who cares about us anyway. There is NO WAY we will ever recuperate our losses so we may as well be forced out with the tax losses. But in all probability a small $10-20k each rights issue bone will be thrown at existing shareholders to shut them up.
Am I being too sceptical?
Unless something dramatic happens on the market and given the propensity for all these Perth companies to move WAY before asx news releases, I cant see any other outcome.
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