afr street talk rinehart taking stake in aqc, page-28

AQC are entitled to additional "defined payments" if in the first instance RIO exercise their option to aquire 75% of the project giving AQC free carried interest in a j/v to be established and then a second "defined payment"based on tonnage if they exercise a put option over the remaining 25%. The question is whats it worth to AQC. If you assume the original independant geo report on Mt Hillalong estimated it could hold around 100mt of metallurgical coaland subsequent estimates in the BGF equities report that it could be up to 300mt ( hard to imagine RIO who know that area very well given proximity to their Hail Creek mine and likely seismic analysis completed over that entire area would be chasing anything smaller than 100mt)then applying some recent transaction prices for lower grade coal - NGF sale of Sienna and Elektra tennements to Nathan tINKLERS BOARDWALK P/L at 50c a tonne (60mt for $30m) then this deal could be worth up to $50m or 10cps to AQC although it does depend on what was negotiated for the initial defined payment, as it seems only the remaining 25% is based on tonnage. If we assume a base case of 100mt then if we conservatively estimate and initial payment of say $20m (only 20c p/t on 100mt and then 50c p/t on the remaing 25mt = $12.5m ) then a base guesstimate might be $32.5m cash to AQC or between 6-7cps . Of course if turns out to be 300mt then it could be multiples of this. I guess we will have to wait until RIO makes their move to know for sure but given AQC already have 107m/t JORC resource on EPC 1827 ( at 50c p/t - another $50m or 10cps)owned 100% plus many other prospective coal tennements (see recent qtrly) it does appear to be severley undervalued at just 4c or mkt cap of just $20m.