the weak that was........

last week saw a classic return to buying mode by major players in the US.....but it's brittle at best......

the NDX, (inc SOX, OEX) is most aggressive leading on a % basis plus having broken the 50/100/200 sma's as a high beta, as it should, however, the 50/100sma's are still x'd over the 200 and this also brings in sell programmes hence the contribution to the chop upwards whereas the RUT is lacklustre at best and warns that we are in rotation, risk is not as 'on' as it should be, which, is verified by the TED still heading north where it should be headed south for a healthy incline for equities meaning a healthy expansion of credit debt as we've seen for the last few quarters........imo

i'm sayin that i think we should continue to see chop upwards with some large(r) swings coming than we saw last week and thus look for more sellside oppos rather than simply buying shake-outs.........

.....around 1228(ish) the SPX runs into the 50sma and should get turbulence there as some programmes kick in.....programmes work both ways - hit them, sell, break them, buy......

34% of nyse stocks are travelling back above their 200 day m/a's with 44% above their 50's so still struggling at least in the right direction.......i'm not bullish or bearish just robustish ......haha.......anyways......
the TRANs stalled out on friday but has not clearly issued a sell, looking more like hesitation, imo........

treasuries:
a large concern on a weekly basis is the persistent rise of the TLT as an inversion of the SPX another sign of larger degree weakness, a rotation, so, ideally, a small topping of the TLT and less back-n-fills in the SPX for a smoother ride upwards, a release of energy from short covering.....a pull back of the TLT would fit very nicely for more SPX upside, so, even though liquidity is coming out as a percentage of the whole equities scene, what is available, moving that liquidity back into equities will produce more upside.......pressure and how it is applied, by whom, on what time frame such as the one we're in right now, tell the story of indecies....nothing new.......erm, which is nice!

warts:
the whispers that China may pull back on US debt added to shorters fuel who were quickly squashed.......yes, i know hindsight commentary is a banal and what is beneficial is to see that gossip in context of where it happened and the following reactions......again, nothing new, ample bad news coming out such as worst sentiment readings since May 1980 etc etc etc

i dont agree with climbing on bad news (a wall of worry) is really a bullish sign, as has always been promoted, as a classic example would be the post 1910 wall that led to the 1920's and of course the following debacle so all in context the point being not to wash a whole painting with the same colour .......cant believe i just said that.......haha.....things like the Greece default were all known and the unknown-unknowns are the killer for trends and while we know we go! up!



http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=oex&x=30&y=14&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=3%2F4%2F2011&freq=6&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=12&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15

interesting stuff about gold:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/gold-backed-dollar-signals-10-000-metal-price-chart-of-the-day.html

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/15_Special_John_Hathaway_Report_-_Gold,_Opportunity_of_a_Lifetime.html

wall of worry (guess who's covering their shorts?):
http://www.blog.sentimentrader.com/post/9920911924/trimtabs-barclayhedge-survey-indicates-that

time for coffee, poetry, prose, some sun

have a nice weekend