While i was initially hoping for a reserves upgrade, after looking at the production data in a bit more detail, I'm pretty happy with data.
If you look at August 22 on all three production charts, (being the day of announcement of the non-binding offer), and assuming a couple days prior knowledge by BOW, (maybe) you can see that from around this point on, all three wells started to exhibit a significantly higher breakout of gas and subsequent gas production rate (ie, cranked up the pump rate most likely). Now, following on, for the next 3-4 weeks, you see the steadily increasing gas rate, and water rates topping out around 100 mcf/d and 100 bbls/d (lateral), which is still low for gas, and surprisingly low water production for the lateral (depending on the flowing pressure).
Now, to me ,, these plots, while not a reserves upgrade, are saying to everyone, "now take your ruler and draw a line through our gas rate trend and tell me where you think its gonna be in a month" and you'd be hard pressed to convince me its not going to be in 2P certification range,
So essentially they are saying, no, we don't have an upgrade at the moment, but we will pretty darn soon.
so, the fact that they have rejected the non-binding conditional offer, for Shell to actually get this rolling, they have to make a hostile takeover offer and aquire the shares on the market at 1.48, if thats what they want to do. Typically, that process with the back and forth is what, at least a month or two, so at this point, they can almost be guaranteed that if they started a hostile offer today, there will by a very high chance of a reserves upgrade during the offer period, so revise your offer accordingly....
I like it, i like it a lot, go BOW!
BOW Price at posting:
$1.52 Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
