whats rogers valuation now, page-36

It's an interesting stock/story this one. I think a few people have been caught out following the crowd. I personally don't mind RM's system, although I don't blindly following everything he says. When I look at a stock I do the following (in order)
1. Is it a quality business?
2. What do I think the IV is?
3. Is it at a large MOS (especially anything to do with mining/drilling - even the resource companies that service and supply mining)?
I believe this is what Roger has continually preached since he started his blog. Around last years annual report (price was roughly $4) Matrix ticked all the above boxes. The problem was people jumped on quickly and the price rose up to and past IV. This is were many people came unstuck. Coming into the half yearly report I think the price had risen to roughly $9. With the concerns about cashflow and and an IV of about $9 (my IV) there wasn't any MOS. For a company like Matrix who don't have the track record like Cochlear, CBA, BHP, ARB etc then a large MOS is required. Yesterday Cochlear slumped about 20%, down to roughly my IV for this year. Becuase of its past record this business could be bought on yesterday's prices and I see it as very low risk (although I will wait - hoping low $50 - and if I miss out, I miss out)

I must admit that promotion of his new A1 business is starting to wear a little thin. Personally I appreciate the book and blog as it has helped me greatly but I also think Roger gets alot out of it as well (sales, appearances etc). Just my 2 cents worth.