I am generally aware of the compulsory acquisition provisions which are triggered at 90%.
I believe that if objections are received from holders of at least 10% of the shares (that is 1% of the total shares or roughly 11 million shares) then Glencore must apply to the Court for approval.
This means that any valuation will be tested before the courts bearing in mind that the valuer must be ASIC approved not some crony directors of Glencore. (Remember, the wanker Chairman who used to claim he was a "Dr" when he was not).
This raises the question of an appropriate valuation methodology.
I believe the revenue generated is insufficient to justify a discounted cash flow and an assets based valuation is more appropriate which would work out at say $2 billion for the plant plus the mine life at say $1 billion or roughly $3 per share.
Remember, this is still below the peak value and at pretty much Glencore's top price buying on market in 2007/2008.
If Glencore saw value at $3 why are we being offered 87 cents and how could a court possible consider this "fair value".
My approach is fairly simple to extract maximum value.
Firstly, do not sell to Glencore or anybody else for that matter.
Secondly, if we hit the compulsory acquisition level, then object and let the court determine fair value. You are well safe in the assumption that you will get above 87 cents.
Thirdly, if Glencore pulls the offer and the share price drops, buy as much as you can as Glencore will come back in at one stage and will have to pay a genuine premium to stay out of the court approval process.
Fourthly, do not forget the above rules and keep on not selling and objecting until you get at least fair value. Mind you, if the market keeps on improving then fair value will increase with the market anyway so you will benefit.
Cheers EOS
MRE Price at posting:
87.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
