When the shareprice has collapsed, the global economy continues to fall apart at an ever increasing rate and the cash on hand gets lower, the path going forward becomes critical. No doubt we are in a much better position with Denbury taking over Grieve but we are still facing problems going forward unless we very quickly get cashflow.
The way Ash creek was developed is rather concerning and as a result of the underperformance the strategy in place is to seek a farmout, likley giving away 2/3 of the field and focus on a chemical flood.
Now heres an idea... why not focus on the lower Shannon (LS) formation, there is 1.8 million barrels estimated to be recoverable from waterflood, 86% of the oil is still in place. the lower Shannon reservoir was either not produced (16 wells) or it was isolated while still producing at a reasonable oil cut approximately 25%.
Why has Ash creek been so unsuccessful given the above?? For starters the #8 + #9 were originally water injection wells, so no surprise here that the 8 has been a total failure. From the map the #1 also appears low on the structure. CH-CHING the penny just dropped we have likely developed 3 wells below the oil zone. Andy, Chris, Peter, they might have cost $750k+ pa but the rewards to ELK now they have gone.... PRICELESS!!
I am happy to invest our last remaining cash in the lower Shannon becouse Lets face it, either Elk find oil in the lower Shannon and we have a revenue stream or if they cant find oil when 86% is still in place (which is pretty good) then wheres the future considering recovery of oil from depleted fields is our company strategy???. But in order for it to be successful they need to develop wells high on the structure that are going to target oil not water. Cheers
ELK Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held