19 no's, page-8

mjgol2

I have to agree with you, when a takover is going to happen and the belief is that the price will move higher then the teh SP usually moves up.

I think this has it's own complexities.

there are effectively two major shareholder GPG at 19.99% and Coastal at 16.53% they control the situation with one against and the other for.

There is no urgency as;
1. The major debt falls due in Sept 2012
2. The business is trading cash flow positive and paying its debts
3. The debt holders are sitting on a profit even if they offer a greater amount to shareholders
4. The debt holders cannot let the business fall into the hands of admintrators as they then loose control and the business could be sold off to one of the parties that tried to buy the business before which would result in the banks getting a haircut (or not making as much if any profit)
5. the debtholders are being paid their interest which is greater than 11%

So this could drag out well into next year unless either Coastal or the debtholders blink first.
If the vote is NO then the management and debt holders need to think what they will do next.
I suspect as we get closer to the vote, if Coastal has not articulated to the debtholders what they want as a revised offer this will definately drag out and we will see the share price actually drop back to 5c. If the debt holders need the vote to get up they will strike a deal with Coastal and the share price will move up.
This is a true Mixican stand off with Coastal and the debt holders. the first to blink will loose

It's quite exciting.